The Logic of Models and Interventions, MIke Moldoveanu
Breaking the Code of Change II, Rotman School of Management, August 2-3, 2000
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Mihnea Modoveanu, Rotman School
Specializes in people and the way they think about change.
Wants to talk about causal models behind the causal models.
Causal models create mental maps.
May not agree with everything, but easier to ask for foregiveness than permission.
Purpose of the presentation:
Which models are most powerful?
Relevant to managers who can choose.
What should be the criteria for choice on models?
Academics might think empirical.
To guide managers to use models.
To guide academics to create more powerful models.
Won't talk about the proof of theory, or the predictability.
How successful is a model in gripping minds?
Nietzsche, It's not the truth of the idea that matters....
Causal models, to take us from unbearable present --> desired future.
Dorner (1999), The Logic of Failure
Given a simulated African country, where you are free to do everything.
Tupis, animals, farm animals, ...
Top chart: Most simulations result in disasters
How have people acted?
What cognitive processes take place?
They make frequent choice not only about what to do, but also the causal models underneath, because they search for new data -- in particular, disconfirming models.
Porter (1996) What is Strategy?
Productivity frontier, value vs. cost of producing value
Choice ratification versus choice implementation
A causal model is series of propositions (which should be consistent).