Some Quantitative Analysis of MEI-Systems Theory -- WANG Huan-Chen, August 3, 2002

46th Annual Meeting of the International Society for the Systems Sciences (ISSS), Shanghai, P.R. China, August 2-6, 2002.

Saturday, August 3, 2002, 2:10 p.m.

This digest was created in real-time during the meeting, based on the speaker's presentation(s) and comments from the audience. These should not be viewed as official transcripts of the meeting, but only as an interpretation by a single individual. Lapses, grammatical errors, and typing mistakes may not have been corrected. Questions about content should be directed to the originator. These notes have been contributed by David Ing (daviding@systemicbusiness.org) at the IBM Advanced Business Institute ( http://www.ibm.com/abi ).

Wang, Huan Chen, Shanghai Jiaotong University

• Quantitative Analysis of the MetaSystems Theory

Note: This talk was conducted with simultaneous translation by two interpreters (to varying degrees of success!)

Will focus on metasystems.

• Metasystems are combined of material, energy and information.

What is the purpose of this topic?

• Where do we get human wealth from?
• As early as 50 years ago, people started to discuss the combination of robot with man power, and automation.
  • Automation to free people from production.
• Question that popped up:
  • Wealth from the assembly of robots?
• Have thought about this.

Economic perspective:

• 1991 - 1992, Greenspan adjusted the interest rate to give impetus to economic recovery.
  • 4 percentage points.
• Widespread discussion about the emergence of a "new economy".
• Is there really a "new economy"?
• Trying to find the relationship between economic structure and economic stages.

Three economic stages in per-capita GDP.

• Stage 1: $200 USD
• Stage 2: $2000 USD
• Stage 3: $20,000 USD

Stage 1 --> Stage 2 is driven by ...

Stage 2 --> Stage 3 must be driven by investment and innovation.

• Chinese as a whole is between Stage 1 and Stage 2.
• Shanghai now at $4500, between Stage 2 and Stage 3.

Fourth stage is currently undefined.

• Many economies are in stage 3: Singapore, USA, Germany
• Have lost their way to Stage 4.
• Still space for China and Shanghai to grow.

Five features:

• 1. Development
• 2. Economic globalization
• 3. Global informatization
• 4. New economy
• 5. Daily exploration

Global economy has changed the world over the last 15 years.

• Theoretical detection or practical induction (e.g. statistical analysis)
• Need to form a circle between these two approaches
• Presentation will focus on theoretical detection

Society (on chart, red circle)

• Influenced by economics, culture, politics, humanism, ecology
• Human wealth can be approached from demand side or supply side.
• In a primitive society, people are satisfied by their feeding needs.
• In an information society, the needs are different.
• Consumption of food --> clothes --> services
• In the future, maybe consumption will come from tours of space.

If we approach this from a supply perspective as well as demand, will come up with a three-dimensional matrix.

• Material, energy and information can be used to answer this question.

In human activities, must have 2 inputs:

• Focus is on action, or human activity, or the activity of a society or a country.
• One input is the resource input.
• Second input is control input
• One output is the usable output
• Second output is discharge output

Then can separate wealth from efficiency.

• Efficiency is U / (C - R)
• First: conservation of energy
• In realitivity, e = MC**2
• Efficiency of energy is smaller than one.
• Efficiency of information can be smaller or larger than one.

From this theoretical detection, there are two sources of human wealth

• One, combines material and energy
  • From natural blessing, e.g. natural resources, materials such as oil or coal, or wildlife plants and animals.
• Second, from the efficient proliferation of information.
  • Three parts:
    • Pure copies, generalized
    • Creation, discovery, innovation
    • Metasynthesis, with synergy (1 + 1 > 2).
  • Wealth from the proliferation of information.

Can come to two conclusions:

• We must adopt a sustainable development strategy across the world.
  • Recognized.
  • Since 1992, countries have been striving towards sustainability.
• Secondly, must have an information strategy.
  • An important future law for human beings.

Quantitative analysis, including a wealth diagram for the main systems.

• Three-D diagram: MEI
  • From Einstein, can integrate M and E, to simplify the question.
• Can combine M and E to 2 dimensions (with I)

[referred to a number of tables]

The only possible way to increase human wealth is to focus on the W2 domain.

The WR domain is feasible, and sustainable.

The limitations of economic surplus rates.

• Deduction for reinvestment
• Used in textile industries -- showed to actually decrease wealth.

[referred to more complicated diagrams]

In the long term, can have an unlimited growth in human wealth.